The Kansas City Chiefs have been awarded the AFC’s top seed and the first-round playoff bye. The Chiefs are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the odds on both teams have changed since our last report.
There were 272 games played throughout the regular season, and 18 teams are already planning for next year. Super Bowl 57 is just around the corner, and the road to get there is about to begin for the 14 remaining teams.
The playoff situation took a significant change in Week 18, with the Chiefs and Eagles clinching byes and Pete Carroll’s return to the postseason (with Geno Smith at quarterback).
Now that we know who will play in the Wild Card round and who will make the playoffs, we can examine the odds of each team winning Super Bowl 57.
Super Bowl favorites
Kansas City Chiefs | +340
In a post-Patriots world, the AFC’s dominant team easily won in Vegas to keep the top seed. The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes were able to move on after Tyreek Hill’s departure, with the offense continuing to be a potent weapon and Mahomes trending toward a second MVP award.
Returning to the Super Bowl will be a tall order for Kansas City, as they will likely have to overcome two formidable opponents.
Buffalo Bills | +400
Although Week 17’s events, including safety Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest, were upsetting, the Bills were able to play well against the Patriots in Week 18. In a dramatic day at Orchard Park, Buffalo defeated the Patriots and set up a Wild Card weekend showdown with the Dolphins.
San Francisco 49ers | +450
In a Week 18 victory over the Cardinals, Brock Purdy’s flawless season continued, while the 49ers maintained their dominant status. The Seahawks, longtime rivals of the Vikings, will be the next team this high-octane offense faces.
Philadelphia Eagles | +550
When it came to winning the conference and earning a first-round bye in the playoffs, Philadelphia had a sizable advantage. The Eagles, headed by Gardner Minshew, needed a win in Week 18 to secure a bye week after suffering consecutive defeats.
After nearly a month of lackluster play, Philadelphia will appreciate the week off, but it will need to provide some answers in two weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals | +800
The AFC winners from last year are just as dominant as they were then. After winning eight in a row, the Bengals are in great position to challenge the Chiefs or the Bills for a spot in the AFC Championship Game. That may be the beginning, especially with Joe Burrow in charge.
Odds to win the Super Bowl: Top 10
|Kansas City Chiefs||+340|
|San Francisco 49ers||+550|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2,200|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+2,500|
Super Bowl 57 point spread
All through the NFL season, you may bet on the Super Bowl point spread. Even though we don’t know which teams will be playing in the Big Game, we may make a wager on which conference will come out on top.
The total has been set at 49.5 points, with the AFC as 3-point favorites against the NFC.
Latest Super Bowl game odds
|-3 (-103)||Spread||+3 (-114)|
|Over 49.5 (-109)||Total||Under 49.5 (-109)|
Early line movement
Bettors hoping for a leg up on the Super Bowl spread may do worse than keeping an eye on how the early lines are moving. Professional gamblers who are particularly astute tend to be among the first to wager on Big Game odds the moment they become available, and they have generally been correct in doing so in recent years.
Early wagers have been correct on the winner in 11 of the previous 14 Super Bowls (with one game resulting in a push).
|Super Bowl||Teams||Opening Spread||Early Move||Closing Spread||Early Money ATS|
|56||Bengals vs. Rams||Rams -3.5||Rams -4.5||Rams -4.5||(Rams) Loss|
|55||Chiefs vs. Buccaneers||Chiefs -3.5||Chiefs -3||Chiefs -3||(Bucs) Win|
|54||Chiefs vs. 49ers||Pick’em||Chiefs -1||Chiefs -1.5||(Chiefs) Win|
|53||Patriots vs. Rams||Patriots -1.5||Patriots -2||Patriots -2.5||(Patriots) Win|
|52||Patriots vs. Eagles||Patriots -5.5||Patriots -3.5||Patriots -4.5||(Eagles) Win|
|51||Patriots vs. Falcons||Patriots -3||Patriots -3 (-120)||Patriots -3||(Patriots) Win|
|50||Broncos vs. Panthers||Panthers -3.5||Panthers -4.5||Panthers -4.5||(Panthers) Loss|
|49||Patriots vs. Seahawks||Patriots -1||No move||Patriots -1||Draw|
|48||Broncos vs. Seahawks||Pick’em||Seahawks -1||Seahawks -1.5||(Seahawks) Win|
|47||49ers vs. Ravens||49ers -4||49ers -3.5||49ers -4.5||(Ravens) Win|
|46||Patriots vs. Giants||Patriots -3.5||Patriots -3||Patriots -3||(Giants) Win|
|45||Packers vs. Steelers||Packers -2||Packers -3||Packers -3||(Packers) Win|
|44||Colts vs. Saints||Colts -3.5||Colts -6||Colts -4.5||(Colts) Loss|
|43||Steelers vs. Cardinals||Steelers -6.5||Steelers -5.5||Steelers -6.5||(Cardinals) Win|
|42||Patriots vs. Giants||Patriots -13||Patriots -11.5||Patriots -11.5||(Giants) Win|
How to read Super Bowl odds
Nearly simultaneously with the tumbling of confetti marking the conclusion of the previous football season, sportsbooks publish NFL futures odds. Picking the Super Bowl victor is by far the most popular way to bet on NFL futures. With so much up in the air for the next NFL season, you can get a fantastic plus-money pricing on just about any team throughout the summer and preseason.
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