Follow along to learn about the best place to put your money on these three NFL proposition bets. On Saturday, the National Football League’s playoffs kick off with Wild Card Weekend. Three rushing props have our attention, but only one of the individuals is a true running back.
The NFL’s Wild Card Weekend is here, and with it comes a plethora of prop bets. On Saturday, I’m betting the Over on two low-risk rushing props.
On Sunday, I want to wager the Under on a bloated running total for a quarterback who will be playing on the road. Without further ado, here are my NFL playoff prop choices.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Hasty Over 10.5 rushing yards | -105
- Samuel Over 10.5 rushing yards | -115
- Jones Under 40.5 rushing yards | -110
NFL prop picks for Saturday
Make Hasty
Los Angeles ranks 27th in EPA/rush this season and 28th since Week 10, so the Jaguars may have success running the ball against them on Saturday. The Chargers allowed the ninth-highest run percentage against (45.6%), thus opponents like to run the ball against them. The Chargers are among the most run-on winning teams in football, as the combined record of the eight teams above them is just 45-73, and many of those runs are game-script dependent.
While the Jaguars’ run game is only mediocre (middle of the pack in DVOA and EPA/rush), it will play a significant role on Saturday due to the Chargers’ pass defense’s recent success (No. 4 EPA/dropback since Week 10) and the regularity with which it defends the run.
Despite the fact that the Jaguars have relied heavily on Etienne ever since trading away James Robinson, Hasty has seen an increase in snap % in four consecutive weeks and has rushed 16 times for 48 yards and a touchdown over the previous three games. His current carrying total is 10.5 yards, which would take just two carries from L.A.’s backup tailback if the team maintained its average of 5.4 yards per carry.
Hasty could easily double this total with a favorable to neutral game script projected, but both backs have a chance to have a huge day against this rush defense.
Robinson (17 carries) and Etienne (13 carries) teamed up for 145 running yards in Week 3’s encounter. Against this defense this season, backup rushers have averaged six runs for 25.4 yards, with a median of 12 yards.
The Home Deebo
The 49ers’ rushing attack will be put through its paces on Saturday as they are 9.5-point home favorites playing against the 32nd-ranked rush defense in EPA/rush since Week 10. With Brock Purdy making his first postseason start and going up against an opponent who has seen him before, San Francisco may see as many as 40 rushing attempts this weekend.
No NFL playoff team ran the ball more often than Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers (51.7 percent of the time), so the Niners had plenty of practice in the last three weeks of the season. Value may be found in the secondary rushing markets with Christian McCaffrey’s rushing total at 76.5 yards, on the rise, and very close to his season high of 80.5.
Deebo After sitting out the previous three games, Samuel returned to action in Week 18. He was given 68% of the team’s defensive snaps and did OK with the extra responsibility. His season best in running yards was 30, and he now has 10.
After Week 18’s victory, Shanahan remarked, “They came out outstanding,” referring to Samuel and Elijah Mitchell. “In the first place, they’re healthy, which is obviously a huge plus. I thought it was excellent that they both got to play some and get back in there, especially since they came out unscathed; I think that will assist them this week.”
Having a healthy Samuel, who before his injury averaged 3.4 carries per game for 19 yards, is a welcome addition to this running attack. Half of the games he participated in with McCaffrey on the team, he had at least four carries.
He ran for 239 yards on 27 attempts in the postseason last year, and he added another 102 yards on the ground in three playoff games this year.
A healthy Samuel will have his opportunities, since the Seahawks will be without their best defender, Jordyn Brooks, and the weather prediction calls for a wet day. OKBET presently has +280 on him gaining over 25 yards and +1450 on him gaining over 50 yards.
No need to run
Daniel Jones’ 40.5 yards running is his highest total in seven weeks and is tied for his season high (NFL Week 11 vs. Detroit). In Week 16’s matchup, the market settled at 30.5 yards despite the fact that New York’s quarterback carried the ball only four times, gaining 34 yards (including 14 on a big dash).
Jones shredded the Minnesota Vikings’ pass defense for 334 yards in that game, so he didn’t have to rush to get the ball going.
This season, opposition quarterbacks are averaging only 20.1 running yards on 3.6 runs against the Vikings’ defense. In Week 3, despite throwing for 200 yards, Justin Fields managed just eight carries for 43 yards, his lowest output of the season against this unit.
The Under on the quarterback’s rushing total is a solid option at 40.5, and I would play it down to 37.5, given the inflated total and a pass defense that even Jones can cleave. The most forgiving pass defense in the playoffs (280 yards per game at home) is one that Jones can beat via the air on NFL and not have to be creative against on the ground due to the injuries of cornerback Cameron Dantzler and safety Harrison Smith.
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